The Redskins Rule is a trend involving NFL football and United States presidential election. Briefly stated, there is a high correlation between the outcome of the most recent Washington Redskins football game and the U.S. Presidential Election: when the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins the popular vote for the White House. This coincidence has been noticed by many sports and political commentators.[1][2]
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The Redskins moved to Washington in 1937. Since then, there have been 18 presidential elections. In 17 or 18 of those (depending on interpretation), the following rule applied:
If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election. If the Redskins lose, the opposite occurs.
The Redskins Rule was first noticed by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau, in 2000[2]
In 2004, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating the incumbent should have lost; however, George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Steve Hirdt, credited with the discovery of the rule, then modified it to refer not to the incumbent party in the White House but to the party that last won the popular vote. In the election in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote, and thereby the revised Redskin Rule has been upheld .[2] The revision remains valid, as it has not occurred since 1937 that the party winning the election lost the popular vote other than in 2000.
On November 3, 2008, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, thereby predicting a win for Illinois Senator Barack Obama over Arizona Senator John McCain (as George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004).[1]
Year | Presidential Election Result | Redskins (Score) | Opponent (Score) | Redskins win or lose? | Incumbent party keeps or loses White House? | Rule upheld? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | Barack Obama defeats John McCain | Redskins 6 | Pittsburgh 23 | lose | lose | yes |
2004 | George W. Bush defeats John Kerry | Redskins 14 | Green Bay 28 | lose | keep | via retrofit* |
2000 | George W. Bush defeats Al Gore | Redskins 21 | Tennessee 27 | lose | lose | yes |
1996 | Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole | Redskins 31 | Indianapolis 16 | win | keep | yes |
1992 | Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush | Redskins 7 | New York Giants 24 | lose | lose | yes |
1988 | George H.W. Bush defeats Michael Dukakis | Redskins 27 | New Orleans 24 | win | keep | yes |
1984 | Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale | Redskins 27 | Atlanta 14 | win | keep | yes |
1980 | Ronald Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter | Redskins 14 | Minnesota 39 | lose | lose | yes |
1976 | Jimmy Carter defeats Gerald Ford | Redskins 7 | Dallas 20 | lose | lose | yes |
1972 | Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern | Redskins 35 | New York Jets 17 | win | keep | yes |
1968 | Richard Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey | Redskins 13 | Minnesota 27 | lose | lose | yes |
1964 | Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater | Redskins 21 | Philadelphia 10 | win | keep | yes |
1960 | John Kennedy defeats Richard Nixon | Redskins 10 | Cleveland 31 | lose | lose | yes |
1956 | Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson | Redskins 17 | Chicago Cardinals 14 | win | keep | yes |
1952 | Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson | Redskins 23 | Pittsburgh 24 | lose | lose | yes |
1948 | Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey | Redskins 51 | Boston Yanks 21 | win | keep | yes |
1944 | Franklin Roosevelt defeats Thomas Dewey | Redskins 42 | Chi-Pitt 20 | win | keep | yes |
1940 | Franklin Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie | Redskins 37 | Pittsburgh 10 | win | keep | yes |
^ Although the incumbent party won the election, which would break the rule, the incumbent party had not won the popular vote in the previous election, thereby generating an alternate variant of the rule which was actually upheld.
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